Brian Dake

U.S. GDP Rose at a 1.1% Pace in the First Quarter

Gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced for the period, rose at a 1.1% annualized pace in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The growth rate followed a fourth quarter in which GDP climbed 2.6%, part of a year that saw a 2.1% increase.

The report also showed that the personal consumption expenditures price index, an inflation measure that the Federal Reserve follows closely, increased 4.2%. Stripping out food and energy, core PCE rose 4.9%, compared to the previous increase of 4.4%.

The slowdown in growth came due to a decline in private inventory investment and a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, the report said. The inventory slowdown took 2.26 percentage points off the headline number.

Consumer spending as measured by personal consumption expenditures increased 3.7% and exports were up 4.8%. Gross private domestic investment tumbled 12.5%.

“The U.S. economy is likely at an inflection point as consumer spending has softened in recent months,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “The backward nature of the GDP report is possibly misleading for markets as we know consumers were still spending in January but since March, have pulled back as consumers are getting more pessimistic about the future.”

 

Wisconsin’s Only Oil Refinery to Reopen

Wisconsin’s only oil refinery is on track to be fully operational in June after a $1.2 billion effort to rebuild the facility five years following an explosion that injured three dozen workers.

The refinery is now owned by Calgary-based Cenovus Energy. Cenovus said Wednesday the refinery is on track to resume full operations by the end of June, Wisconsin Public Radio reported. The cost to rebuild the refinery tripled from initial projections, and it took years longer than expected due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The refinery typically produces gasoline, diesel and asphalt with a capacity of roughly 50,000 barrels per day. Around 350 employees will now work at the refinery, which previously employed about 200 workers.

Wisconsin’s Labor Force Participation Rate High Among ‘Prime Working Age’ Adults

Wisconsin often has among the highest labor force participation rates in the country for “prime working age” residents, according to a recent UW-Madison report.

The labor force participation rate is typically based on the percentage of workers over age 16 that are either employed or unemployed and actively seeking work, the report shows. But a researcher with the university’s Division of Extension notes this measure can be calculated for “a variety of demographic characteristics.”

For residents between the ages of 25 and 54, Wisconsin is frequently among the top 10 U.S. states for labor force participation on an annual basis, the report found. In 2021, that rate was 88.9 percent for men and 83.1 percent for women in the state — the ninth and fifth highest rates in the country, respectively.

The report also explores county-level prime working age labor force participation. But the author notes margins of error in U.S. Census Bureau data used to calculate these figures at the county level “make geographic comparisons somewhat challenging.” The report aims to avoid this issue by analyzing if a county’s rate has a statistically significant difference from national rates.

“Calculating significant differences (at a 90% confidence level) shows variations in [labor force participation rates] for both men and women within states and across regions,” author Matt Kures wrote.

For prime working age men, 42 counties in the state have labor force participation rates above the national rate of 86.4 percent, while 15 counties have a lower rate and another 15 don’t have a statistically significant difference. The counties with a lower rate include: Bayfield, Burnett, Washburn, Rusk, Chippewa, Forest, Menominee, Jackson, Vernon, Crawford, Juneau, Adams, Waushara, Dodge and Milwaukee.

Meanwhile, 51 counties in the state have participation rates for women that are above the national average, and just two counties have lower rates, the report shows.

Wisconsin Assembly to Vote on Limits for UI Benefits

People in Wisconsin would receive fewer unemployment benefits and face stricter qualification requirements under a package of bills slated for votes in the state Assembly on Tuesday.

The eight Republican-backed measures follow a statewide April election in which more than three-quarters of voters supported a nonbinding ballot question saying they believe able-bodied adults should have to look for work to receive government assistance.

Unemployment recipients in Wisconsin already must perform four work-search activities each week. Under the bills that will be voted on Tuesday, employers would be able to report recipients who decline or don’t show up to an interview. People who have been reported multiple times and don’t have good reasons for declining or missing interviews could have their benefits rescinded.

Another measure would tie the number of weeks someone can receive unemployment benefits to the statewide unemployment rate. With current rates under 3%, recipients would be limited to 14 weeks of benefits. The existing standard of 26 weeks of benefits would only apply if rates rise above 9%, which hasn’t happened since the 2008 financial crisis.

Other proposals in the package would enact stricter identity verification checks for unemployment benefits, prohibit local governments from using taxpayer money to create guaranteed income programs and require the Department of Health Services to review every six months the eligibility of people participating in Medicaid programs reserved for low-income people, family caretakers and pregnant women.

Rural Bridge Collapse Sparks Calls for Statewide Inventory, Safety Assessment

The Wisconsin Towns Association is calling on lawmakers to fund a statewide assessment of small bridges. The ask comes after a century-old creek crossing in northern La Crosse County collapsed under a fertilizer truck April 15.

Mike Koles, executive director of the Wisconsin Towns Association, said federal regulations require an inventory and regular safety assessments of bridges over 20 feet. But there are no requirements for structures under that length.

Koles estimates there are up to 25,000 of them across the state. The Towns Association is asking the state Legislature to include funding for a statewide inventory and safety assessment of these crossing, which Koles said states like Minnesota and South Dakota have already completed.

“That’s going to identify how big of a problem this is, where the problem is,” he said.

Koles said his organization is also asking state lawmakers to make supplemental funding through the local road improvement program a permanent part of the budget. He said local communities rely on these programs to pay for large construction projects. And he said rural communities could use financial help paying for grant writers to prepare their applications.

Accessing Credit has Become Harder, Federal Reserve Bank Beige Book Shows

Businesses across the country said banks have tightened their lending standards since last month’s banking crisis, according to an economic survey from the Federal Reserve released Wednesday.

Overall economic activity held steady in recent weeks, with nine of the central bank’s 12 regional districts reporting no change, or slight growth; and three others reporting modest gains. The report captures the effects of last month’s banking turbulence on businesses and banks themselves.

Consumer spending, manufacturing activity and construction activity were either flat or down slightly this spring, businesses said. Tourism activity was a bright spot in recent weeks, with several firms reporting a notable pick-up.

Conditions in the jobs market improved; fewer businesses reported mass layoffs and more businesses said it has become easier to hire and that employee retention has improved. That coincides with government figures showing that the U.S. labor market has lost some steam recently, though it remains strong. Some firms also said that the pace of price increases has slowed.

Wisconsin Assembly Votes to Outlaw Local Bans on Gas Engines

State and local governments in Wisconsin would not be allowed to ban gas-powered vehicles, snow blowers, lawnmowers and other machines under a pair of bills the Republican-controlled Assembly passed Tuesday along party lines.

The bills’ GOP sponsors hope to outlaw measures similar to a law passed in California last year requiring that all new cars, trucks and SUVs sold in the state run on electricity or hydrogen by 2035. That decision left 17 states with vehicle emissions standards tied to California laws facing tough decisions on whether they would adopt the same ban on gasoline-fueled vehicles.

Gas stations and fossil fuel industry groups such as Kwik Trip and the American Petroleum Institute have thrown their support behind the measures. Meanwhile, environmental advocates and the American Lung Association oppose them.

The measures still need approval from the Senate and from Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who is likely to veto them. Evers has been at odds with Republicans when pushing to use state money to build out electric vehicle charging stations.

The governor’s spokesperson, Britt Cudaback, did not immediately respond to an email Monday asking whether he would veto the measures. But at an event in Milwaukee on Tuesday, Evers said he didn’t believe a ban on gas engines was necessary for the state to slowly transition to using electric vehicles.

Organized Retail Crime is Growing in Scope and Complexity

Organized retail crime is growing in scope and complexity, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). It is also becoming more violent.

The NRF’s latest report, published last week, detailed how organized retail crime is a “perpetual and burgeoning problem” that has inflicted billions in financial losses for U.S. retailers and their communities.

For years, the NRF has been issuing reports that quantify what people are stealing and how retailers are responding in terms of their loss prevention activities. For the first time, the trade group also provided a detailed assessment about whom these organizations are, their tactics, motives and links to other types of criminal activities, Christian Beckner, NRF vice president of retail technology and cybersecurity, told FOX Business.

In doing so, the NRF hopes to help retailers and law enforcement “stay ahead of the organized retail crime threat and anticipate changes to organized retail crime group tactics, instead of just responding after incidents occur,” Beckner said.

According to the Homeland Security Investigations and the Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists, organized theft groups launder an estimated $69 billion in illicit profits through the U.S. financial system and trade-based money laundering schemes each year.

According to the NRF report, which conducted its latest assessment in partnership with global risk advisory firm K2 Integrity, these organized retail crime groups “primarily favor large national retailers and big-box retailers, and cargo shipments for booster operations.” They are also more likely to target everyday consumer goods rather than luxury products. Based on an analysis of 116 groups, 81% exclusively stole general consumer goods.

These groups have also been planning out their booster operations in advance by studying store layouts, camera and exit locations, understanding the types of anti-theft precautions and knowing the different store policies for stopping suspected thieves, the report said. Boosters are known as the individuals who are paid to commit theft on behalf of these groups.

IRS, DOL and HHS Issue FAQ about Upcoming Changes to COVID-19 Coverage and Payment Requirements

he Internal Revenue Service, Departments of Labor and Health and Human Services have jointly issued Frequently asked questions about the Affordable Care Act ImplementationFamilies First Coronavirus Response Act, Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, and Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act Implementation Part 58 and Affordable Care Act and Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act Implementation Part 59 to clarify how the COVID-19 coverage and payment requirements under the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA), the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) will change when the Public Health Emergency (PHE) ends.

Based on current COVID-19 trends, the Department of Health and Human Services is planning for the federal PHE for COVID-19 to end on May 11, 2023. Once the PHE ends, the coverage and payment requirements will change.

Under the FFCRA and the CARES Act, plans and issuers are not required to provide coverage for items and services related to diagnostic testing for COVID-19 that are furnished after the end of the PHE. If they provide such coverage, they may impose cost-sharing requirements, prior authorization or other medical management requirements for the items and services.

Wisconsin Bill would Block Taxpayer-Funded Guaranteed Income Programs

A Republican-sponsored bill would block local communities in Wisconsin from using public money to bankroll guaranteed income programs.

Dozens of cities across the country have signed onto such programs, in which residents get recurring payments. Unlike other government subsidies, those payments are not restricted to specific uses like rent or food.

During a public hearing this week, state Rep. Amy Binsfeld, R-Sheboygan, pointed to Wisconsin’s low unemployment rate and argued guaranteed income discourages work.

“We should not be asking the taxpayers to fund another handout on top of the already taxpayer-funded benefits,” Binsfeld said. “We especially want to make sure that our labor force is getting the workers that they need and doesn’t have to continue to beg on top of these programs.”

Currently, Madison is the only Wisconsin city running a guaranteed income program. But Binsfeld says under the bill she introduced earlier this month, Madison’s project would still be allowed because the city’s yearlong pilot is funded by private donors.

Milwaukee city officials have raised the idea of a guaranteed income program. And, in 2021, the Wausau Common Council adopted a resolution to accept a $100,000 grant from Mayors for a Guaranteed Income, which would be used to test out guaranteed income in limited form.

But Wausau hasn’t yet submitted a plan for how such a program would work, Wausau Mayor Katie Rosenberg said. She said she’s waiting to see how Madison’s pilot works out.

“I was very nervous about people losing benefits that they already qualified for by getting this guaranteed income stipend,” Rosenberg said, adding that she doesn’t anticipate using public dollars for the project. “The Council was pretty clear that they weren’t interested in using any city funding for this.”

The Assembly bill, which has gained Republican co-sponsors in the GOP-controlled Senate, defines guaranteed income programs as “regular periodic cash payments that are unearned and that may be used for any purpose.”

The bill’s supporters have cited a referendum passed April 4 by nearly 80 percent of Wisconsin voters. That non-binding ballot measure asked Wisconsinites whether they agreed able-bodied childless adults should have to look for work in exchange for receiving “taxpayer-funded welfare benefits.”