A new projection from the state found Wisconsin’s population is expected to decline by nearly 200,000 residents by 2050.
That’s largely due to declining birth rates and the aging of baby boomers, according to a Wisconsin Department of Administration report.
In 2020, the state’s population was 5,893,718. By 2050, that number is expected to decrease to 5,710,120 — a decline of 183,598 residents. The report found the decline is largely due to the “changing age distribution” in Wisconsin.
The projection expects the state’s population to remain stable from 2020 to 2030. It’s then expected to decrease around 1 percent from 2030 to 2040, and just over 2 percent from 2040 to 2050.
If the state were to maintain its population, it would “require a large unforeseen shift,” according to the report. That could be a “large decrease in mortality; a large increase in fertility,” or an increase in new migration to the state.
John Johnson, a researcher at Marquette University Law School, called the projection “sobering.”
“Anyone who’s looked at birth statistics knows that people in Wisconsin are having fewer and fewer babies, and we’re not a hot spot for migration,” Johnson told WPR.
Wisconsin’s population growth has stalled in recent years. A 2021 report from Forward Analytics found that from 2010 to 2020, Wisconsin’s population increased by 3.6 percent. That’s the smallest increase in any 10-year period in the state’s history, according to the Forward Analytics report.